Why The Country is in Need of Climate Financing

Introduction

Despite contributing less than 1% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Pakistan is ranked among the top 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change. In 2022, floods caused by increased precipitation and glacial melting impacted the lives of 30 million people, killing a confirmed 1,739 and destroying 50% of crops. From 1998 to 2018, over 150 extreme weather events were recorded in the country and projections show that the frequency of extreme weather events in Pakistan will only increase in the future. It is estimated that by 2050, crop yields in the country will shrink by 50% and one-fifth of the nation’s Global Domestic Product (GDP) will be lost.

Heat Waves

Pakistan faces intense heat risks, regularly experiencing some of the world’s highest temperatures. With monthly maximums averaging 27°C, reaching 36°C in June, the country’s heatwave probability is around 3%, exposing large populations to extreme heat. Over 65,000 people were hospitalized during the 2015 heatwave, with over 1,200 fatalities primarily in Sindh. Studies indicate Pakistan had around 126 heatwaves between 1997 and 2015, showing an upward trend. By 2080–2099, days with a Heat Index above 35°C could double under high-emissions scenarios (see Figure 1) and, posing escalating threats to health and urban centers like Karachi and Lahore.

Figure 1: The Compound Risk Categorization of Temperature-Based Heat and Population from 2020-2039

Source: Bank Group’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal

Droughts

Pakistan faces two main types of drought: meteorological (linked to low rainfall) and hydrological (linked to low water flow in river basins). Currently, Pakistan’s annual probability of severe meteorological drought is around 3%, but this may increase significantly with climate change. Projections suggest severe droughts could become more frequent, with annual probabilities between 25%–65% under high emissions.

Floods

By 2030, climate change alone could increase annual flood exposure to 1.5 million people and GDP losses to $5.8 billion. Pakistan’s vulnerability to flooding is highlighted by events like the 2010 and 2022 floods. Additional factors like glacial melt, rising precipitation, and glacial lake outburst floods compound the country’s flood risks, demanding urgent risk reduction.

Air Pollution

All of Pakistan’s population lives in areas with particulate pollution levels above WHO guidelines, and 98.4% reside in regions exceeding Pakistan’s national air quality standard of 15 µg/m³. This pollution shortens average life expectancy by 3.3 years, worsening over time as levels have risen by 35.1% since 1998. In highly polluted provinces like Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Islamabad, life expectancy losses range from 3.2 to 4.6 years relative to WHO standards.

Figure 2: Annual Average PM2.5 concentration in Pakistan, 1998-2022.

Source: Air Quality Life Index, University of Chicago

COP29

From the 11th to 22nd of November, the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan. Also referred to as the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29), the global summit will bring together world leaders, scientists, and advocates to negotiate strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting to climate impacts, and providing climate finance to vulnerable nations. COP29 aims to accelerate progress toward the goals set in the Paris Agreement, focusing on limiting global warming to 1.5°C and addressing urgent adaptation needs. For Pakistan and other vulnerable nations, COP29 represents a vital opportunity to push for stronger climate finance, resilience-building measures, and international support.

Key Focus Areas

The COP29 summit will prioritize setting a new climate finance target, revising emission reduction goals, and monitoring progress on previous commitments. The event’s theme, “Finance COP,” highlights the urgency of securing adequate funding to assist developing countries in adapting to climate impacts. This includes the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), which will succeed $100 billion annual target from the Paris Agreement, emphasizing a fairer distribution of climate finance from developed to developing countries.

Pakistan’s Climate Challenges and Resilience Efforts

Pakistan’s climate vulnerabilities are stark. The 2022 floods, which devastated infrastructure, displaced over 30 million people, and severely impacted the economy, underscored the country’s need for comprehensive climate adaptation strategies. In 2024, Pakistan endured record-breaking heat waves, particularly in Sindh, where temperatures reached 52.2°C, threatening labor productivity and agricultural output. Additionally, changing precipitation patterns have disrupted crop production, increasing food insecurity.

Acknowledging these challenges, Pakistan’s strategy for COP29 focuses on climate resilience and the need for external support. With a commitment to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Pakistan has integrated climate action into its development agenda. This alignment includes establishing a dedicated SDG Unit within the Ministry of Planning to ensure effective policy implementation.

Building Alliances and Securing Finances

Pakistan is leveraging COP29 to advocate for a reformed global financial structure to support developing nations. At a recent pre-COP29 dialogue, Pakistan’s Coordinator on Climate Change, Romina Khurshid Alam, called for financial flows from the Global North to South to address climate adaptation needs. Pakistan is urging COP29 attendees to establish a well-funded Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) with simplified approval procedures, an essential resource for recovering from climate-related disasters.

At COP29, Pakistan also plans to strengthen its role within the G77 coalition, a key bloc of developing nations. The alliance will seek better adaptation support for developing countries, particularly in securing funds for Pakistan’s National Adaptation Plan. The plan prioritizes water management, agriculture, and disaster resilience, addressing issues that are essential for sustainable development in the face of escalating climate impacts.

Collaborating with Afghanistan

Pakistan can leverage its regional power to support neighboring Afghanistan, which faces a compounded crisis of climate vulnerability, humanitarian challenges, and

limited recovery capacity. Through a regional partnership, Pakistan can collaborate on initiatives like transboundary water management and climate-resilient agriculture. By fostering regional resilience, Pakistan can help mitigate shared climate risks and strengthen South Asia’s collective response to the climate crisis.

A Vision for Sustainable Growth

In preparation for COP29, Pakistani officials are holding consultations with various stakeholders, including the Ministry of Climate Change, civil society organizations, and international partners. Pakistan’s leadership hopes to use this platform to emphasize the urgent need for sustainable climate financing and the importance of fostering public-private partnerships to promote renewable energy, food security, and urban resilience.

Pakistan’s commitment to a low-carbon, resilient future at COP29 demonstrates its dedication to building a sustainable society despite the significant climate risks it faces. By highlighting its climate vulnerabilities and advancing strategic alliances, Pakistan seeks to pave the way for a more inclusive, climate-resilient world, fostering cooperation for global adaptation and innovation.

Moving Forward

As Pakistan steps into COP29, it carries the weight of being a voice for vulnerable nations. By advocating for stronger funding commitments and forging partnerships, Pakistan has the potential to drive global climate action forward.

Axial Consulting seeks to be a part of this moment. So, join us, as we engage with boutique firms and industry innovators at COP29 to drive impactful climate solutions for Pakistan and beyond. Let’s work together for a sustainable future!